Caustic soda supply and demand in 2026 will remain regionally divergent: supply is comfortable in north and north-west China, while prices in east China stay relatively firm on demand from alumina and chemical fibre downstreams.
On exports, demand from Southeast Asia and the Middle East keeps growing, opening periodic windows for liquid and flake caustic soda shipments. Freight cost and warehouse conditions at destination ports still weigh on CIF prices.
We suggest downstream buyers lock part of their annual volume when prices are low while keeping spot flexibility, so as to absorb demand swings caused by alumina operating rates.
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